[h=1]Fantasy Forecaster: Week 22[/h][h=3]September means expanded rosters, reworked rotations[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com
On tap: Though September arrived during fantasy's Week 21, and with it the major-league roster expansion from 25 to 40 players, the next key date from a transactions period arrives on Tuesday. That's the day after the conclusion of all higher-level minor league (Double-A and Triple-A) regular seasons, at which point players on those rosters become eligible for immediate promotion (regardless of whether they have stayed the requisite 10-game minimum in the minors). This is how teams like the Baltimore Orioles, Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals have finagled the back ends of their rotations, the Orioles and Pirates reportedly slotting the recently demoted Wei-Yin Chen and Jeff Locke back into their starting five this week, the Cardinals choosing among Tyler Lyons, Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez, all of whom were demoted this past week, for a Tuesday start.
The upshot is that, once again, big-league rotations are somewhat in flux, and that's especially true for teams like the Miami Marlins, Pirates and Seattle Mariners, who have innings-cap concerns for youngsters Jose Fernandez (age 21), Gerrit Cole (turns 22 on Sunday) and Taijuan Walker (21). Don't get too cozy with your rotation projections; they are always subject to change in September.
Max Scherzer takes a second crack at win No. 20 -- still a benchmark in many baseball people's eyes (though not this columnist) -- in a game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park, that three-game, Monday-Wednesday series a potential American League Championship Series preview. Sticking with American League themes, the Tampa Bay Rays welcome Matt Moore (elbow) back to their rotation on Tuesday, right in time for him to be a two-start pitcher during the team's 10-game west-coast swing, making starts at Los Angeles' Angel Stadium and Seattle's Safeco Field.
For the second consecutive week, we've got a bunch of National League Central showdowns, the St. Louis Cardinals again taking on their division rivals and primary competition for playoff spots, the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates. This time these series will be played at Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park (the Cardinals the visitors) and St. Louis' Busch Stadium (the Cardinals at home). Thus far this season (through Aug. 29), the Cardinals had won 10 of 15 meetings with the Reds, and the Pirates eight of 13 meetings with the Cardinals.
The Reds, meanwhile, face another challenge, hosting the Los Angeles Dodgers for three games Friday-Sunday. That puts the Dodgers' schedule under the microscope; their starters are riding a string of 13 quality starts in an 18-game stretch from Aug. 10-28 during which time they have 11 wins, a 1.98 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. That's especially important considering the Dodgers play the entire week at the two most hitter-friendly venues in the National League, Colorado's Coors Field (Monday-Wednesday) and the aforementioned Great American Ball Park (Friday-Sunday).
Finally, 10 of the 15 American League teams play a full seven games this week, while only four of the 15 NL squads play that many. This might be a week to lean more on AL squads if you're seeking volume of at-bats/starts.
Quick click by section, if you're seeking advice in a specific area:
ESPN lineup deadlines | Interleague impact | Projected starting pitchers
Pitching scuttlebutt | Week 22 pitcher rankings | Pitching advantages
Hitting ratings | Hitting advantages
[h=3]ESPN leagues: Lineup deadlines[/h]
Labor Day arrives on Monday, and with it, a full slate of action. It's one of only two Mondays all season during which every team has a game -- the other was Memorial Day (May 27) -- and, just like the previous one, there is a slew of day baseball on the holiday. The first game begins at 1:05 p.m. ET, Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees, though 13 of the 15 Monday games scheduled are "day games" (start times at 4:35 p.m. ET or earlier). Before you head out for your weekend trip, your Monday BBQ or one of those Monday games, make sure you set your lineup!
After all, this represents the first week of playoffs for owners in ESPN's standard head-to-head leagues. It's the first week of Round 1, which extends through fantasy's Week 23 (that concludes with the games of Sunday, Sept. 15). You can see how the playoff format works right here.
There are also day games on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday this week, so make sure to set your lineups early on those days if you play in a league with daily transactions; people can sometimes forget if distracted by the lure of NFL's Week 1. Wednesday's first game is New York Mets at Atlanta Braves at 12:10 p.m. ET; Thursday's first game is Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals at 2:10 p.m. ET; and Friday's first game is Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs at 2:20 p.m. ET.
[h=3]Interleague impact[/h]
This week's interleague series:
• Toronto Blue Jays at Arizona Diamondbacks (3 games, Monday-Wednesday)
• New York Mets at Cleveland Indians (3 games, Friday-Sunday)
As was the case during their last trip to NL cities, from May 29-June 5, the Blue Jays face the difficult decision of how to fit first base/designated hitter partners Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Lind into their lineup. Encarnacion made five starts at third base during that seven-game stretch, meaning this might be his last and best chance at reaching the 20-game minimum requirement for eligibility at that position (he has 10 games there thus far). That said, usual third baseman Brett Lawrie was on the disabled list at the time, and the Blue Jays aren't likely to sit their best two hitters in terms of wOBA (weighted on-base average) since the All-Star break, Encarnacion (.391, and .288/.394/.534 triple-slash rates) and Lawrie (.386, and .326/.388/.514). That the Diamondbacks are scheduled to start two right-handers, however, could mean that Lind sneaks in a start at either's expense.
The Mets, meanwhile, have a bevy of lackluster fantasy options whom they could use at DH in Cleveland. Lucas Duda might be the most natural choice based upon his poor defense, but he has only one start since his Aug. 24 recall, or the team could grant some additional at-bats to first base partners Ike Davis and Josh Satin. Here's a wild thought: David Wright (hamstring), who was scheduled to begin a rehabilitation assignment for Class A St. Lucie during the weekend but won't really have a place to finish it due to the impending end to the minor league season, could be activated by the Mets to work his way back to full strength as a DH. There's not enough promise to risk it in leagues with weekly transactions -- not without an announcement by the Mets first -- but Wright's owners in daily leagues should track his progress.
[h=3]Projected starting pitchers[/h]
The chart below lists each of the 30 MLB teams' schedules and projected starting pitchers, and provides a matchup rating for each day's starter. Pitchers scheduled to start at least twice this week are in gold/beige boxes.
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On tap: Though September arrived during fantasy's Week 21, and with it the major-league roster expansion from 25 to 40 players, the next key date from a transactions period arrives on Tuesday. That's the day after the conclusion of all higher-level minor league (Double-A and Triple-A) regular seasons, at which point players on those rosters become eligible for immediate promotion (regardless of whether they have stayed the requisite 10-game minimum in the minors). This is how teams like the Baltimore Orioles, Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals have finagled the back ends of their rotations, the Orioles and Pirates reportedly slotting the recently demoted Wei-Yin Chen and Jeff Locke back into their starting five this week, the Cardinals choosing among Tyler Lyons, Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez, all of whom were demoted this past week, for a Tuesday start.
The upshot is that, once again, big-league rotations are somewhat in flux, and that's especially true for teams like the Miami Marlins, Pirates and Seattle Mariners, who have innings-cap concerns for youngsters Jose Fernandez (age 21), Gerrit Cole (turns 22 on Sunday) and Taijuan Walker (21). Don't get too cozy with your rotation projections; they are always subject to change in September.
Max Scherzer takes a second crack at win No. 20 -- still a benchmark in many baseball people's eyes (though not this columnist) -- in a game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park, that three-game, Monday-Wednesday series a potential American League Championship Series preview. Sticking with American League themes, the Tampa Bay Rays welcome Matt Moore (elbow) back to their rotation on Tuesday, right in time for him to be a two-start pitcher during the team's 10-game west-coast swing, making starts at Los Angeles' Angel Stadium and Seattle's Safeco Field.
For the second consecutive week, we've got a bunch of National League Central showdowns, the St. Louis Cardinals again taking on their division rivals and primary competition for playoff spots, the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates. This time these series will be played at Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park (the Cardinals the visitors) and St. Louis' Busch Stadium (the Cardinals at home). Thus far this season (through Aug. 29), the Cardinals had won 10 of 15 meetings with the Reds, and the Pirates eight of 13 meetings with the Cardinals.
The Reds, meanwhile, face another challenge, hosting the Los Angeles Dodgers for three games Friday-Sunday. That puts the Dodgers' schedule under the microscope; their starters are riding a string of 13 quality starts in an 18-game stretch from Aug. 10-28 during which time they have 11 wins, a 1.98 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. That's especially important considering the Dodgers play the entire week at the two most hitter-friendly venues in the National League, Colorado's Coors Field (Monday-Wednesday) and the aforementioned Great American Ball Park (Friday-Sunday).
Finally, 10 of the 15 American League teams play a full seven games this week, while only four of the 15 NL squads play that many. This might be a week to lean more on AL squads if you're seeking volume of at-bats/starts.
Quick click by section, if you're seeking advice in a specific area:
ESPN lineup deadlines | Interleague impact | Projected starting pitchers
Pitching scuttlebutt | Week 22 pitcher rankings | Pitching advantages
Hitting ratings | Hitting advantages
[h=3]ESPN leagues: Lineup deadlines[/h]
Labor Day arrives on Monday, and with it, a full slate of action. It's one of only two Mondays all season during which every team has a game -- the other was Memorial Day (May 27) -- and, just like the previous one, there is a slew of day baseball on the holiday. The first game begins at 1:05 p.m. ET, Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees, though 13 of the 15 Monday games scheduled are "day games" (start times at 4:35 p.m. ET or earlier). Before you head out for your weekend trip, your Monday BBQ or one of those Monday games, make sure you set your lineup!
After all, this represents the first week of playoffs for owners in ESPN's standard head-to-head leagues. It's the first week of Round 1, which extends through fantasy's Week 23 (that concludes with the games of Sunday, Sept. 15). You can see how the playoff format works right here.
There are also day games on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday this week, so make sure to set your lineups early on those days if you play in a league with daily transactions; people can sometimes forget if distracted by the lure of NFL's Week 1. Wednesday's first game is New York Mets at Atlanta Braves at 12:10 p.m. ET; Thursday's first game is Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals at 2:10 p.m. ET; and Friday's first game is Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs at 2:20 p.m. ET.
[h=3]Interleague impact[/h]
This week's interleague series:
• Toronto Blue Jays at Arizona Diamondbacks (3 games, Monday-Wednesday)
• New York Mets at Cleveland Indians (3 games, Friday-Sunday)
As was the case during their last trip to NL cities, from May 29-June 5, the Blue Jays face the difficult decision of how to fit first base/designated hitter partners Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Lind into their lineup. Encarnacion made five starts at third base during that seven-game stretch, meaning this might be his last and best chance at reaching the 20-game minimum requirement for eligibility at that position (he has 10 games there thus far). That said, usual third baseman Brett Lawrie was on the disabled list at the time, and the Blue Jays aren't likely to sit their best two hitters in terms of wOBA (weighted on-base average) since the All-Star break, Encarnacion (.391, and .288/.394/.534 triple-slash rates) and Lawrie (.386, and .326/.388/.514). That the Diamondbacks are scheduled to start two right-handers, however, could mean that Lind sneaks in a start at either's expense.
The Mets, meanwhile, have a bevy of lackluster fantasy options whom they could use at DH in Cleveland. Lucas Duda might be the most natural choice based upon his poor defense, but he has only one start since his Aug. 24 recall, or the team could grant some additional at-bats to first base partners Ike Davis and Josh Satin. Here's a wild thought: David Wright (hamstring), who was scheduled to begin a rehabilitation assignment for Class A St. Lucie during the weekend but won't really have a place to finish it due to the impending end to the minor league season, could be activated by the Mets to work his way back to full strength as a DH. There's not enough promise to risk it in leagues with weekly transactions -- not without an announcement by the Mets first -- but Wright's owners in daily leagues should track his progress.
[h=3]Projected starting pitchers[/h]
The chart below lists each of the 30 MLB teams' schedules and projected starting pitchers, and provides a matchup rating for each day's starter. Pitchers scheduled to start at least twice this week are in gold/beige boxes.
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<CENTER>Team</CENTER> | <CENTER>Mon 9/2</CENTER> | <CENTER>Tue 9/3</CENTER> | <CENTER>Wed 9/4</CENTER> | <CENTER>Thu 9/5</CENTER> | <CENTER>Fri 9/6</CENTER> | <CENTER>Sat 9/7</CENTER> | <CENTER>Sun 9/8</CENTER> |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| @CLE Norris (RHP) P: 3 | @CLE Tillman (RHP) P: 8 | @CLE Gonzalez (RHP) P: 6 | CWS Feldman (RHP) P: 8 | CWS Chen (LHP) P: 3 | CWS Norris (RHP) P: 4 | CWS Tillman (RHP) P: 8 |
| DET Lackey (RHP) P: 5 | DET Lester (LHP) P: 5 | DET Dempster (RHP) P: 2 | @NYY Peavy (RHP) P: 6 | @NYY Doubront (LHP) P: 5 | @NYY Lackey (RHP) P: 7 | @NYY Lester (LHP) P: 6 |
| @NYY Quintana (LHP) P: 5 | @NYY Sale (LHP) P: 7 | @NYY Santiago (LHP) P: 5 | @BAL Danks (LHP) P: 4 | @BAL Rienzo (RHP) P: 1 | @BAL Quintana (LHP) P: 5 | @BAL Sale (LHP) P: 6 |
| BAL Masterson (RHP) P: 7 | BAL Jimenez (RHP) P: 6 | BAL McAllister (RHP) P: 6 | NYM Kazmir (LHP) P: 4 | NYM Salazar (RHP) P: 7 | NYM Masterson (RHP) P: 9 | |
| @BOS Fister (RHP) P: 4 | @BOS Scherzer (RHP) P: 9 | @BOS Porcello (RHP) P: 3 | @KC Sanchez (RHP) P: 10 | @KC Verlander (RHP) P: 6 | @KC Fister (RHP) P: 6 | |
| MIN Clemens (RHP) P: 4 | MIN Cosart (RHP) P: 7 | MIN Lyles (RHP) P: 5 | @OAK Peacock (RHP) P: 4 | @OAK Keuchel (LHP) P: 2 | @OAK Obrholtzr (LHP) P: 3 | @OAK Clemens (RHP) P: 2 |
| SEA Duffy (LHP) P: 7 | SEA Chen (LHP) P: 6 | SEA Santana (RHP) P: 6 | SEA Guthrie (RHP) P: 5 | DET Shields (RHP) P: 7 | DET Duffy (LHP) P: 5 | DET Chen (LHP) P: 3 |
| TB Richards (RHP) P: 6 | TB Vargas (LHP) P: 5 | TB Weaver (RHP) P: 6 | TB Williams (RHP) P: 5 | TEX Wilson (LHP) P: 5 | TEX Richards (RHP) P: 6 | TEX Vargas (LHP) P: 5 |
| @HOU Albers (LHP) P: 7 | @HOU Deduno (RHP) P: 5 | @HOU Hendriks (RHP) P: 1 | TOR Pelfrey (RHP) P: 5 | TOR Correia (RHP) P: 6 | TOR Albers (LHP) P: 6 | |
| CWS Pettitte (LHP) P: 6 | CWS Kuroda (RHP) P: 5 | CWS Sabathia (LHP) P: 5 | BOS Nova (RHP) P: 4 | BOS Hughes (RHP) P: 1 | BOS Pettitte (LHP) P: 5 | BOS Kuroda (RHP) P: 4 |
| TEX Straily (RHP) P: 4 | TEX Colon (RHP) P: 6 | TEX Parker (RHP) P: 8 | HOU Gray (RHP) P: 7 | HOU Griffin (RHP) P: 7 | HOU Straily (RHP) P: 5 | HOU Colon (RHP) P: 7 |
| @KC Hernandez (RHP) P: 7 | @KC Ramirez (RHP) P: 7 | @KC Walker (RHP) P: 6 | @KC Saunders (LHP) P: 1 | TB Iwakuma (RHP) P: 7 | TB Hernandez (RHP) P: 7 | TB Ramirez (RHP) P: 7 |
| @LAA Archer (RHP) P: 8 | @LAA Moore (LHP) P: 4 | @LAA Price (LHP) P: 8 | @LAA Cobb (RHP) P: 8 | @SEA Hernandez (RHP) P: 3 | @SEA Archer (RHP) P: 10 | @SEA Moore (LHP) P: 5 |
| @OAK Holland (LHP) P: 6 | @OAK Perez (LHP) P: 5 | @OAK Darvish (RHP) P: 10 | @LAA Garza (RHP) P: 4 | @LAA Blackley (LHP) P: 4 | @LAA Holland (LHP) P: 7 | |
| @ARI Redmond (RHP) P: 1 | @ARI Rogers (RHP) P: 1 | @ARI Buehrle (LHP) P: 5 | @MIN Dickey (RHP) P: 7 | @MIN Happ (LHP) P: 5 | @MIN Redmond (RHP) P: 3 | |
| TOR McCarthy (RHP) P: 4 | TOR Miley (LHP) P: 6 | TOR Delgado (RHP) P: 4 | @SF Cahill (RHP) P: 7 | @SF Corbin (LHP) P: 8 | @SF McCarthy (RHP) P: 4 | @SF Miley (LHP) P: 6 |
| NYM Maholm (LHP) P: 6 | NYM Medlen (RHP) P: 8 | NYM Teheran (RHP) P: 7 | @PHI Minor (LHP) P: 10 | @PHI Wood (LHP) P: 9 | @PHI Maholm (LHP) P: 5 | |
| MIA Wood (LHP) P: 10 | MIA Jackson (RHP) P: 6 | MIA Samardzija (RHP) P: 10 | MIL Rusin (LHP) P: 4 | MIL Arrieta (RHP) P: 5 | MIL Wood (LHP) P: 9 | |
| STL Latos (RHP) P: 9 | STL Bailey (RHP) P: 9 | STL Arroyo (RHP) P: 8 | STL Cingrani (LHP) P: 7 | LAD Leake (RHP) P: 5 | LAD Latos (RHP) P: 9 | LAD Bailey (RHP) P: 9 |
| LAD Bettis (RHP) P: 1 | LAD Chacin (RHP) P: 7 | LAD DeLaRosa (LHP) P: 5 | @SD Nicasio (RHP) P: 6 | @SD Chatwood (RHP) P: 6 | @SD Bettis (RHP) P: 2 | |
| @COL Kershaw (LHP) P: 10 | @COL Nolasco (RHP) P: 8 | @COL Ryu (LHP) P: 7 | @CIN Capuano (LHP) P: 1 | @CIN Greinke (RHP) P: 10 | @CIN Kershaw (LHP) P: 10 | |
| @CHC Alvarez (RHP) P: 6 | @CHC Koehler (RHP) P: 2 | @CHC Fernandez (RHP) P: 10 | WSH Turner (RHP) P: 5 | WSH Eovaldi (RHP) P: 6 | WSH Alvarez (RHP) P: 5 | |
| PIT Gorzelanny (LHP) P: 5 | PIT Gallardo (RHP) P: 7 | PIT Peralta (RHP) P: 7 | @CHC Estrada (RHP) P: 9 | @CHC Lohse (RHP) P: 6 | @CHC Gorzelanny (LHP) P: 5 | |
| @ATL Matsuzaka (RHP) P: 1 | @ATL Torres (RHP) P: 7 | @ATL Gee (RHP) P: 5 | @CLE Wheeler (RHP) P: 8 | @CLE Niese (LHP) P: 8 | @CLE Matsuzaka (RHP) P: 1 | |
| WSH Hamels (LHP) P: 6 | WSH Martin (RHP) P: 1 | WSH Halladay (RHP) P: 3 | ATL Lee (LHP) P: 9 | ATL Kendrick (RHP) P: 5 | ATL Hamels (LHP) P: 8 | |
| @MIL Morton (RHP) P: 6 | @MIL Cole (RHP) P: 5 | @MIL Liriano (LHP) P: 6 | @STL Burnett (RHP) P: 7 | @STL TBD P: 1 | @STL Morton (RHP) P: 7 | |
| @CIN Wainwrght (RHP) P: 8 | @CIN TBD P: 1 | @CIN Miller (RHP) P: 8 | @CIN Lynn (RHP) P: 6 | PIT Kelly (RHP) P: 7 | PIT Wainwrght (RHP) P: 9 | PIT TBD P: 1 |
| SF Kennedy (RHP) P: 6 | SF Erlin (LHP) P: 6 | SF Stults (LHP) P: 6 | COL Cashner (RHP) P: 8 | COL Ross (RHP) P: 8 | COL Kennedy (RHP) P: 5 | |
| @SD Petit (RHP) P: 6 | @SD Bumgarner (LHP) P: 9 | @SD Lincecum (RHP) P: 6 | ARI Vogelsong (RHP) P: 4 | ARI Zito (LHP) P: 1 | ARI Petit (RHP) P: 5 | ARI Bumgarner (LHP) P: 8 |
| @PHI Strasburg (RHP) P: 10 | @PHI Gonzalez (LHP) P: 8 | @PHI Zimmrmnn (RHP) P: 7 | @MIA Haren (RHP) P: 9 | @MIA Ohlendorf (RHP) P: 5 | @MIA Strasburg (RHP) P: 10 | |
P: The starting pitcher's matchup rating, which accounts for past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. |